Economics
The Determinants of Voter Turnout in Supranational Elections
Quick fact
In the 2019 European Parliament election, turnout across the EU was about 50.6%—the first time it had risen since 1994—yet in Belgium it was 88% because voting is mandatory, while in Slovakia only 22% of voters turned out.
Why this is interesting
You probably vote in national elections, but do you know why so many people skip elections for the European Parliament or the UN? The gap might surprise you.
Read the full explanation
Understanding The Determinants of Voter Turnout in Supranational Elections
Think of elections as a cost-benefit decision. In a national election, the outcome directly shapes your daily life—who controls healthcare, taxes, and police. So the perceived benefit of voting is high. But in a supranational election like the European Parliament, the link between your vote and policies feels much weaker. The European Parliament shares power with other bodies, and the negotiating process seems far away. This makes these elections 'second-order'—voters are less interested, and many stay home. Yet turnout isn't uniform across countries. Some countries historically have high participation because they see the EU as very relevant to their national politics, while others have low participation because the election is seen as a protest vote against the national government. In short, citizens calculate whether their vote will matter: if the institution seems important and the race is close, they turn out; if it feels like a distant sideshow, they don't.
A deeper explanation
The mechanism behind low turnout in supranational elections lies in the concept of 'second-order elections' (introduced by Reif and Schmitt). In these contests, voters perceive that less is at stake because the supranational parliament does not form a government that directly sets policy—that power remains primarily at the national level. As a result, voters are more likely to use the election to express dissatisfaction with their domestic government, voting for smaller or opposition parties, and they are more likely to abstain altogether. This is compounded by the fact that campaigns are often fought on national issues, and media coverage is sparse. However, turnout is not solely a function of perceived importance. Institutional factors play a decisive role: countries with compulsory voting (like Belgium, Luxembourg, and Australia for supranational elections) see much higher turnout. Additionally, the presence of strong pro-European or Eurosceptic movements can mobilize voters—for example, the 2019 election saw a rise in turnout amid debates about EU integration and identity. Thus, turnout is a function of both individual-level attitudes (interest, sense of civic duty) and institutional rules (compulsory voting, electoral thresholds, election day infrastructure). Understanding these determinants helps explain why the European Parliament's democratic legitimacy is often questioned—low turnout undermines the claim of a strong popular mandate.