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Psychology

Survivorship Bias in Historical and Business Analysis

Quick fact

During World War II, statistician Abraham Wald advised the US Air Force to reinforce the places on returning planes that had NO bullet holes, because the planes that had been hit there never made it back—a classic example of survivorship bias.

Why this is interesting

Why do we believe that startup success is more common than it really is? And why do we think historical heroes were more exceptional than they were?