Mathematics
The Dynamics of Ethnic Fractionalization and Civil Conflict
Quick fact
Several studies find a positive correlation between ethnic fractionalization and civil conflict, but the effect is moderate and depends on context. For example, a one-standard-deviation increase in fractionalization can raise the probability of conflict by several percentage points, but only when institutions are weak.
Why this is interesting
Imagine a country where two random people are from different ethnic groups. Should we expect more civil wars? Surprisingly, the answer is not straightforward—and the real story may surprise you.