Geography
Migration Diplomacy and Vis-à-Vis Leverage in Bilateral Relations
Quick fact
In 2016, Turkey threatened to open its borders to millions of refugees unless the EU provided more financial aid, effectively using migration as leverage.
Why this is interesting
You've probably heard of 'visa wars' between nations, but did you know that who gets to enter a country is often a chess piece in international politics?
Read the full explanation
Understanding Migration Diplomacy and Vis-à-Vis Leverage in Bilateral Relations
Migration diplomacy is the use of migration policies as tools of foreign policy. States can threaten to restrict migration, expel migrants, or conversely, offer to accept more refugees. The key is that migration flows are not just demographic facts but bargaining chips. For example, a country might say to another: 'If you don't give us trade concessions, we will limit visas for your citizens.' Or: 'We will welcome your refugees in exchange for your support on a UN resolution.' This turns the movement of people into a strategic instrument. To understand this, imagine a neighbor who has control over a shared irrigation canal. They can send more water to your fields or cut it off, using that control to get you to do what they want. Similarly, a state controls who crosses its borders, and it can use that control to reward or punish other states.
A deeper explanation
The underlying mechanism is the dependence on migration flows. When one state depends on a flow of migrants (for labor, remittances, or as a way to relieve domestic pressure) and another state controls the entry or exit of those migrants, the latter gains vis-à-vis leverage. This leverage is a measure of how much one actor's bargaining position is improved by their relative position in a relationship. In practice, states use a variety of tools: visa regulations, refugee policies, deportation threats, and even consular services. These tools can be used coercively (threats to cut off flows) or cooperatively (promises to increase flows). The leverage is effective when the target values the migration flow enough to change its behavior. However, this strategy is risky: if the target finds alternative sources of migrants or ways to circumvent restrictions, the leverage evaporates. Moreover, it can backfire, leading to retaliation, reputational damage, or domestic backlash.