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Psychology

Public Opinion Polling and Its Predictive Limitations

Quick fact

In the 2016 U.S. presidential election, national polls predicted a comfortable Clinton win, yet Trump won the Electoral College. A major reason: many polls failed to accurately adjust for the overrepresentation of college-educated voters and the underrepresentation of working-class voters who favored Trump.

Why this is interesting

Remember the 2016 election, when nearly every poll predicted a Hillary Clinton victory? How could so many polls be so wrong?