Psychology
Identifying and Mitigating Cognitive Biases in Intelligence Analysis
Quick fact
Studies of real intelligence failures, such as the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 2003 Iraq WMD assessment, show that confirmation bias and mirror-imaging were central contributors—despite analysts having access to the same evidence.
Why this is interesting
Two intelligence analysts can look at the same satellite image and reach completely opposite conclusions—yet both feel equally confident they're right. Why does this happen, and why is it so difficult to stop?