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How Military Coups Affect Subsequent Political Liberalization
Quick fact
A surprising number of post-Cold War coups have been 'short-lived', with the military stepping aside after a relatively brief period, often under international pressure. For example, in 2015, Burkina Faso's military coup lasted only one week before the regime was ousted by civilian protests and had to hand power back to a transitional government, which then held elections.
Why this is interesting
We often assume a military coup is a direct step away from democracy, but history shows that some coups have paved the way for freer politics. What makes the difference?
Read the full explanation
Understanding How Military Coups Affect Subsequent Political Liberalization
Let's step into the moment after a coup. The military leadership is not a single entity; they have different factions with different interests. Some may want a quick return to barracks, others may be hungry for power. This internal heterogeneity is crucial. If the most powerful faction consists of 'reluctant generals' who only stepped in to prevent a national emergency, they might be willing to step aside. But more often, they try to hold on to power while giving a democratic facade. The level of societal mobilization is a strong counterweight. When mass protests spontaneously emerge against the coup, the military must decide to repress, which is risky, or to negotiate. The negotiation often leads to a 'transition pact' that includes a timeline for elections, a new constitution, and amnesty for those who committed crimes during the coup. This process can lead to a significant opening in the political system, even if the military retains special privileges like veto power and control over security matters. Thus, coups can be a trigger for liberalization, but the process is contingent on civilian pressure and international enforcement.
A deeper explanation
The key underlying principle is that political liberalization is not simply the absence of a coup, but rather a process of expanding contests and participation. A coup may break the institutional deadlock or remove a strongman, which enables a new set of actors to enter the political stage. The military’s decision to allow liberalization is influenced by the threat of being overthrown themselves. If the military fears a counter-coup from junior officers who are more radical, they might seek civilian allies and bet on open politics. Additionally, the international community often offers 'carrot and stick' mechanisms: recognizing the new government only if it promises democratic reforms. In the post-Cold War world, the norm against acquiring power by coup has become stronger, and regional organizations have gradually adopted the principle that coup leaders cannot be part of transitional governments. This was seen in Mali and Guinea, where the military leaders were forced to make commitments, though they often delayed. In some cases, the coup leaders themselves are members of the 'pro-democracy' movement, as in the Portuguese Carnation Revolution, where left-wing officers quickly established a multiparty democracy.